Difference between revisions of "Trading prediction markets"
Revision as of 13:17, 10 March 2018
Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. This article concerns using the Byteball platform to do this.
Definition of "prediction market"
Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are [usually] exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. It is a binary option that will expire at the price of 0 or 100%.
Research has suggested that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
Current available markets
Sports-betting on upcoming soccer matches
See the wiki Sports betting article for details
Gambling on random numbers
See the wiki Gambling article for details, including a video
Betting on crypto exchange rates
Crypto exchange rates oracle: JPQKPRI5FMTQRJF4ZZMYZYDQVRD55OTC
See wiki Oracle article for a step-by-step write-up
Price oracle was extended (29 August 2017) and now also posts total market cap of all crypto coins and BTC dominance percentage (as reported by coinmarketcap).
The new data feed names for smart contracts are:
- TOTAL_CAP - total market cap in billions
- BTC_PERCENTAGE - BTC percentage of total market cap
There is now (November 2017) a commercial site, BinaryBalls, that does binary options trading with Byteball bytes, using this oracle as a trustless referee.
Betting on flight delays
Flight delay tracker for flight delays insurance
There is a video of betting on a flight delay on the Oracle page.