Difference between revisions of "Trading prediction markets"
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Latest revision as of 17:34, 12 January 2020
Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. This article concerns using the Obyte platform to do this.
Definition of "prediction market"
Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are [usually] exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. It is a binary option that will expire at the price of 0 or 100%.
Research has suggested that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
Current available markets
Sports-betting on upcoming soccer matches
See the wiki Sports betting article for details
Betting on random numbers
See the wiki Oracle#Random_numbers article/section for details, including a video
Betting on crypto exchange rates
Crypto exchange rates oracle: JPQKPRI5FMTQRJF4ZZMYZYDQVRD55OTC
See wiki Oracle article for a step-by-step write-up
Price oracle was extended (29 August 2017) and now also posts total market cap of all crypto coins and BTC dominance percentage (as reported by CoinMarketCap).
The new data feed names for smart contracts are:
- TOTAL_CAP - total market cap in billions
- BTC_PERCENTAGE - BTC percentage of total market cap
A commercial site, BinaryBalls, from November 2017 was doing binary options trading with Obyte bytes, using this oracle as a trustless referee. On May 10, 2018, it switched to a new data feed directly provided by Bittrex as its new assets-price Oracle.
17 September 2018: Due to new EU regulation (DECISION 2018/795) binary options are now illegal and banned from all European Union countries. Therefore Binary Balls has ceased its activities.
Betting on flight delays
Flight delay tracker for flight delays insurance
There is a video of betting on a flight delay on the Oracle page.